Earnings season is right around the corner and stock are deeply oversold. So, is now the time to buy or should you wait until after earnings are reported? Is now the time to buy and wait for a quick pop from earnings or should you wait until earnings disappoint and buy the sell-off?

Many stocks are trading at single digit P/E ratios and valuations that make the market look cheap. Although I am not too much into fundamental investing, I have to consider fundamentals when trading. Value investors are working overtime right now trying to distinguish whether these valuations are of actual value or whether they are pointing to a weaker earnings outlook.

What Am I Doing?

Sitting it out for now. If I am not in the market, I can’t lose money. I see companies hoarding cash, retailers reporting mixed numbers, employment not improving, and terrible housing data. The technicals of the markets say there is more room to the downside but with any earnings season around the corner, volatility is the only certain thing in the markets. Some stocks will win and others will lose, I will sit on the sidelines and wait.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finally crosses 11,000. What does it mean for the future of the markets and their direction? After finally reaching and closing above the much anticipated 11,000 mark, what’s the trade now? What does Dow 11,000 mean?

Fundamental Meaning

In a simple explanation, the market has just got more expensive. The Dow closing above 11,000 means nothing fundamentally. Don’t shy away the markets because they just got more expensive as the first company, Alcoa (AA), reported its quarterly earnings after the market close today. If earnings come in strong, then the market could be undervalued and send the market higher.

Technical Meaning

For technical traders, the Dow closing above 11,000 means almost nothing. So, what does it mean? Technical traders like round numbers. Other than that, the trend is still moving higher.

Psychological Meaning

This is probably the biggest meaning of the Dow crossing 11,000. It’s nothing more than a psychological number. With every movement higher, retail investors start feeling more and more confident about dipping into the market. Keep in mind: An inflow of retail investment usually indicates a top, whether long-term or short-term as retail investors are always the last into the market.

By no means am I calling a top in the market. Just remember that 10,000 was only about 8 weeks ago, which represents a 10% move in a short period.

The market seems to be ready for a big move but in which direction? Will the market continue to grind up slowly, consolidate before moving higher, or pull back giving investors a chance to jump in at a lower price?

The Technical Side

Looking at the chart below, you can see the trend is still intact but momentum seems to be running out. The trend is your friend and you should trade it as so. What do you do when the trend looks like it is about the break or reverse? Buy protection in the form of puts, shorting against long positions, or just go flat (no positions) until you have evidence the trend is still intact and continues to move higher or lower, whichever, the direction.

The 10 DMA on the SPX held today but looks like it might roll over. It looks like sellers want to short this market as the recent volume has been on down days.

Economic Data

Jobs, jobs, jobs. This week’s jobs number may be crucial to market direction. It will be interesting to see how traders will react to the reports. The Census jobs will skew the employment reports. If they come in worse than expected, even with the Census numbers, the market is likely to sell off. Jobs are a lagging indicator but with almost 10% of workers unemployed, it has the power to move markets. The ADP numbers that disappointed traders could give a sign as of what to expect from the payroll and unemployment numbers.

Now, might be a good time to take some profits off the table or to buy some protection.

Tomorrow the employment numbers come out and expectation are that unemployment will come in just below 10%. How will the market react? Will the Dow hold 10,000 or sell-off?

The Psychological Effect

The psychological effect of the unemployment number crossing 10 percent could have a significant impact on trading tomorrow. If the number comes in higher than expected, the market will probably sell-off. A correction would not necessarily be a bad thing now, as the markets have come a long way since the March bottoms.

Market Looking For Direction

Recently, the market volatility has increased along with the market swings. The Dow 10,000 looks toppy and if the number comes in worse than expected, expect a quick loss in the markets. If the number comes out better than expected, the market will probably continue higher. Those who are short the markets get out of the way until the next source of bad news or lose big.

Be Prepared To Jump In Or Out

You can make a lot of money trading economic new but prepare yourself to get out quickly if the trade does not go your way. If you are trading the employment numbers, please remember your stop orders. The unemployment numbers will move the markets tomorrow. I do not recommend trading economic numbers. If you do so, play it safe and take profits or stop losses.

I recall watching CNBC when the DOW crossed 10,000 a little over a week ago. What was it that made the traders and investors on the floor cheer? Why is the 10,000 milestone so important? What makes this time different from the first time the DOW passed the 10,000 mark 10 years ago?

The Decade That Flat-lined

To me, the DOW crossing 10,000 means nothing fundamentally and technically it is another whole number to trade off. The DOW crossing 10,000 did not create any new jobs, nor did it help the declining dollar. As I mentioned earlier, the DOW crossed the 10,000 milestone 10 years ago. If you had put your money into an index fund 10 years ago, it has done nothing…not counting dividends. Dividends that, if reinvested, have lost value and taxes you paid on them probably wipes out anything you might have gained.

Dow 10,000 – The Second Time Around

With a decade of no performance, where do we really stand? Well, 10,000 today is not the same 10,000 as it were 10 years ago. Thanks to inflation, your investment in an index fund that tracks the DOW might have returned you the same dollar amount as you invested but it gave you a dollar with a significantly weaker buying power. Want to know more about the loss in your buying power? Head over to ZeroHedge.com and read an article called “DOW 10,000!!!! OhWait, Make That 7,537.”

Investing In Index Funds

If you are investing in index funds think about this post. Ten years of no gains and loss of buying power will make anyone poorer than they were 10 years ago. Do not get me wrong, I am not saying that index funds are a terrible investment. I am saying that the buy and hold theory should be history. A decade of losing 25% of your buying power and no investment gains is an obstacle you do not want in a retirement account.